Bank holds at 3.75%. It expects the energy cap to rise again in 2027.

The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026. Most headlines stopped there. Further into the same minutes is the line that reaches a household: Ofgem’s price cap “was now expected to rise substantially further in 2027 Q1”.

That is the Bank, in September, saying what it thinks January looks like.

The committee could not agree which way to move

The Monetary Policy Committee split six to three. Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor voted to hold. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted to raise Bank Rate to 4%. Nobody voted to cut.

Bailey voted to hold and then set out why that might not last. If the conflict in the Middle East persists “for an extended period, as appears to be the case”, and the risk of second-round effects increases, “it is likely that policy may have to tighten”.

Tighten means up. That is the Governor, in the part of the minutes recording his own vote to leave rates alone.

The forecast moved, not the rate

The Bank now expects Consumer Prices Index inflation to reach around 3.75% in the final quarter of 2026 — it expected 3.2% at the time of its July report — and slightly above 4% in the first quarter of 2027.

It puts the cause in energy. Since the run-up to the July report, Brent crude is up 36%, to $106 a barrel, and UK wholesale gas is up 78%, to 207 pence a therm.

What it replaces

For most of this year the working assumption in the market, and in a lot of coverage, was that the next move in Bank Rate would be downward and the only question was when. That assumption now sits against a committee where three of the nine votes are on the other side, and against the Bank’s own forecast of inflation going through 4% rather than back towards its 2% target.

A hold is not a signal of a cut. It is the absence of a decision, and this one was taken by a committee that could not agree which direction to move in.

The energy line nobody has printed

The minutes record that Ofgem’s headline cap for October to December was raised to £1,723, “somewhat higher than expected at the time of the July Report”, and that the cap “was now expected to rise substantially further in 2027 Q1, all else equal”.

It is a forecast, not an announcement. Ofgem sets the January figure itself, weeks before it applies. But it is an official statement that the January cap is expected to move up again, and by more than a little.

One caution, because it catches people every quarter: the cap limits unit rates and the standing charge, not your bill. The £1,723 describes a household using a typical amount of gas and electricity. Use more and you pay more than that.

The one thing readers will get wrong

That “rates held” means the cost of borrowing has settled. It has not. The next decision is on 5 November 2026, the one after that on 17 December 2026, and three of the nine people voting have already put their hand up for a rise.

The second thing, closer to a payslip: inflation slightly above 4% in early 2027 is the backdrop against which next April’s pay awards get argued. Local government’s 3.3% for April 2026 sits against rents rising 3.8% in the year to August 2026. If the Bank’s forecast holds, the gap being argued over next spring starts wider. Our record of the current local government award is at /njc/pay-award, and the NHS position is at /nhs/pay-rise.

Where these figures come from

• Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% — September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes — Bank of England
• Exchange of letters between the Governor and the Chancellor regarding CPI inflation — September 2026 — Bank of England
• Transcript of the Governor's pooled broadcast interview given on 17 September 2026 — Bank of England
• Monetary Policy Committee dates for 2027 — Bank of England
• Private rent and house prices, UK: September 2026 — Office for National Statistics

Every figure traces to a dated document — the line this section is named after. If one here is wrong, tell us and it gets fixed publicly. Work out your own figures.