The Circular

Benefits and statutory pay

Inflation is 3.1%. The figure that sets your benefits comes on 21 October

Inflation rose to 3.1% in August 2026, but April 2027 benefit rates are set by the September figure, published on 21 October 2026.

21 October When the figure that counts lands

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published August’s inflation figure on 16 September 2026. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose to 3.1%, up from 2.9% in July. CPIH, which adds owner-occupiers’ housing costs, was 3.3%.

That figure decides nothing about your benefits: the one that does is September’s, and the ONS publishes it on 21 October.

Which month counts

Inflation-linked benefits are uprated once a year, in April, using the CPI figure for the previous September. April 2026’s rise of 3.8% came from September 2025. So the number that sets April 2027 is September 2026’s — and the ONS publishes it at 7am on 21 October 2026.

August’s 3.1% is a signal about where that number is heading. It is not the number.

What 3.1% would be worth

This is an illustration, not a forecast. September’s figure will differ, rates are rounded when the order is drawn up, and the order has to go to Parliament. But it shows the scale on the 2026/27 rates:

Payment2026/27 rateWith 3.1%
Personal Independence Payment, daily living standard£76.70 a week£79.08
Personal Independence Payment, daily living enhanced£114.60 a week£118.15
Carer’s Allowance£86.45 a week£89.13
Statutory Sick Pay£123.25 a week£127.07

Universal Credit is not on that clock

The Universal Credit standard allowance is the exception, and it is the one most people assume follows inflation.

The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated for above-inflation rises to the standard allowance across the four years from 2026/27. For April 2026 that meant an extra 2.3% on top of September 2025’s 3.8% CPI — which is exactly how £400.14 a month for a single person aged 25 or over became £424.90. Further uplifts run to 2029/30, by which point the standard allowance is due to be 4.8% higher than CPI alone would have left it.

The health element moved the other way. For most people newly entitled to it from April 2026 it was roughly halved, from £423.27 a month to £217.26, and frozen at that level each year to 2029/30. People who were already getting it, and new claimants who are terminally ill or meet the severe conditions criteria, keep a protected rate — £429.80 for 2026/27.

The thing people get wrong

Benefits and the State Pension have never moved together, and now Universal Credit does not move with either.

Most benefits follow CPI for September. The State Pension follows the triple lock, which for April 2026 meant the increase in average earnings — that is why April 2026 produced 3.8% on benefits and 4.8% on the basic and new State Pension. Universal Credit’s standard allowance follows an Act of Parliament.

So a headline reading “inflation is 3.1%, your benefits go up 3.1%” can be wrong three ways over: wrong month, wrong index, wrong payment.

What drove August’s figure

Motor fuel did most of the work. Petrol averaged 161.3p a litre in August, its highest since November 2022, and motor fuel prices were 23.0% higher than a year earlier. Electricity, gas and other fuels were up 6.0%. Food and non-alcoholic drinks were 1.3%, unchanged from July.

That matters for the month that counts. Fuel is volatile and can unwind quickly, and the energy price cap rises 4% on 1 October — after the September prices that set next April’s rates have been collected, which the ONS does around the middle of the month.

If you are in the NHS and working out what an absence pays, our page on Agenda for Change sick pay is at /nhs/sick-pay.

Where these figures come from

Every figure traces to a dated document — the line this section is named after. If one here is wrong, tell us and it gets fixed publicly. Work out your own figures.